As the election draws nearer, look for fewer differences between the three maps.Click or tap any of the maps for an interactive version. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. We’re forecasting the election with three models. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. All Rights Reserved. FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. "What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8"------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8.
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging.
Skip to main content. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
Menu. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast. Analysis. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out.
These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. See something you think is wrong? These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
Electoral Maps Derived from FiveThirtyEight ForecastsWhat we've done here is created an electoral map for each model from the current* FiveThirtyEight state-level probabilities. For more information, see the FiveThirtyEight election forecast user guide.
We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. Updated Nov. 9, 2016. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. Democrats Abroad voted from March 3rd to March 10th.© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. 538’s probability of a Clinton or Trump victory relies on the results of at least 20,000 model runs each time a new poll (or set of polls) comes in. [5] To get their probabilities of victory for each candidate, they sum up the number of times that candidate got 270 or more electoral votes on each run, much like Jackson and Hooper at HuffPost or Sam Wang at PEC. Polls-plus forecast. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. Search. 2016 Election Forecast. We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate countsWelcome to our new 2020 Democratic primary forecast. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. * We're updating hourly, so our maps will slightly lag any updates to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. FiveThirtyEight is forecasting the presidential election with three models. Senate . We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. FiveThirtyEight.
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